Best Picture Predictions
First off let’s just toss out The Post, Darkest Hour, and Phantom Thread. Nominating these movies is the reason no one watches the Oscars anymore. The first two are movies for old white men and while the last one is attempting to do something interesting it’s too boring for anyone to notice. Phantom Thread relies solely on the performance of Daniel Day Lewis. According to Vegas all three movies have100-1 shot of winning, let’s move on.
Call Me By Your Name also has no shot but I don’t want to just throw it out like the others. That’s because I didn’t have a chance to see it – the problem is I’m not the only one. The buzz around the movie is small. I want to go see it, in part because I’ve heard the performance by Timothee Chalamet is masterful and deserving to win Best Actor over Gary Oldman (it won’t). However, I am in the minority and most people would rather just go see Black Panther again (which I respect/want to as well). So farewell to this darling little movie.
So what of the top 5? Of the ones that are left Dunkirk seems to have the slimmest chance with 50-1 odds. But Oscar voting is weird. To win the Oscar you have to have over 50% of the votes. If that doesn’t happen then you discard the last place movie and count first and second place votes. So was this anyone’s favorite movie of the year? Maybe. But can it be someone’s second favorite movie of the year? It’s the safest and most traditional movie left on the list and on a technical discussion this was far and away the best movie. There is a path for this movie to win, but to even have a chance it is going to have to win every technical award possible and hope the other four movies split the vote, which may actually be possible.
There is a clear and obvious divide between Oscar voters. Traditionalist will tell you that Shape of Water and Three Billboards were the two best movies and it is just between those two. But those movies don’t really speak to the world we are living in. That is what the younger generation sees and why they believe Lady Bird and Get Out is worthy of discussion.
From what I have read when Lady Bird won at the Golden Globes there were a group of voters who became got resentful. They didn’t think this movie deserved to win, so people have been trashing the movie ever since. I don’t think it is the best movie of the year but I do like it better than two other movies I haven’t mentioned yet. The movie is 33-1 and while it may not win I am excited to see what Greta Gerwig does next.
Get Out is the best movie of the year and it’s not even worthy to argue for anything else. It is a fantastic story, with something smart to say, sharply directed, and it’s a good watch. But how could a movie released in February, a horror movie no less, really be in discussion as the best picture? That is the old, white, crusty response but after Moonlight won anything is possible. This is the movie more people have seen than anything else and besides some trolls on the internet I haven’t heard a bad thing about it. If this Oscar takes place three years from now with all the same nominees Get Out wins but because there are still old, white crusty voters who think more traditionally there is a natural road block.
Who would have thought that a movie about fish fucking would be the traditional pick? Any yet here stands Shape of Water. A movie which I don’t believe is great but is good across a lot of different categories. The sound design and visual spectacle are both award worthy. This movie also has three actors that are nominated for their performances, though you can decide how worthy they are. Then there is Guillermo Del Toro who puts it all together. He probably should have won for Pan’s Labyrinth but at the time he was too new so politically speaking they decided he didn’t deserve the award yet. Luckily that way of thinking seems to be going away but for now it lingers on. This is a movie for movie lovers and the story pays tribute to the cinema which Oscar voters traditionally love. If this movie wins that would be fine and it would be expected. But with other movies that have so much more to say to in terms of what is going on around us shouldn’t that be rewarded?
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri has something to say. About revenge, the police, and what’s going on in America. It also happens to be masterfully acted by the three leads in the movie, two of which will probably be rewarded for those performances. The story is good even if it does go off the rails by the end. So of the more traditional movies on the list at least I will be more satisfied if this wins.
Here is how I think it will break down.
Call Me by Your Name
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
What will win: Shape of Water
What could win: Three Billboard Outside Ebbing, Missouri
What should win: Get Out
Here are the other nominees and some predictions. I hope you enjoy the show on Sunday. Let me know who you want to win.
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out
What will win: Guillermo del Toro
What could win: Christopher Nolan
What should win: Christopher Nolan
Actress in a Leading Role
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post
What will win: Frances McDormand
What could win: Sally Hawkins
What should win: Saoirse Ronan
Actor in a Leading Role
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
What will win: Gary Oldman
What could win: Timothee Chalamet
What should win: Daniel Day-Lewis (though I haven’t seen all of the movies on this list)
Actress in a Supporting Role
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
What will win: Allison Janney
What could win: Laurie Metcalf
What should win: Laurie Metcalf
Actor in a Supporting Role
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
What will win: Sam Rockwell
What could win: Willem Dafoe
What should win: Woody Harrelson