WHO WILL WIN AND WHO SHOULD WIN
"A Star Is Born"
The field has never been more open. Bohemian Rhapsody and Green Book won Golden Globes, while Green Book also nabbed the PGA award for Best Film. Black Panther won the SAG. Roma won the DGA and the BAFTA awards. Eighth Grade and Can You Ever Forgive Me? won for writing – and those movies aren’t even in the running. So, what does that mean? There is no consensus this year.
Because of that you have to think any movie that didn’t win a major award - A Star Is Born, Vice, The Favourite, and BlacKKKlansman - is out of the running. Though I wouldn’t necessarily say BlacKKKlansman is out. With everything Oscar has been criticized for over the years Spike Lee’s movie could sneak in there. Is Bohemian Rhapsody a good movie? I don’t think so. It is enjoyable and I had a blast watching it, but it isn’t necessarily good cinema, so at least for this category it’s probably out. How amazing would it be if Black Panther won? A movie that people saw wins the award for the best movie of the year. But how can you take a comic book movie seriously? Ryan Coogler makes the case for it exploring ideas of fate vs. destiny and how racial progress should be handled - all while people fight in spandex. While there has been a late push, it would be hard to imagine a comic book movie winning the night’s big award.
Green Book which was a heavy favorite early, but as with any early favorite people had a lot of time to find all the flaws and talk about why this movie shouldn’t win. So then will Roma win? Of all the movies on the list, Roma is the most artistic, which the Academy loves, but will they hate that the movie was distributed on Netflix instead of going through the typical theater format? Another question worth asking – despite being on Netflix, how is it that people still refuse to watch it? Should that factor in, or is the beauty of this movie exactly what the Academy wants to support?
Who will win: "Roma"
Who should win: "Black Panther"
Spike Lee, "BlacKKKlansman"
Pawel Pawlikowski, "Cold War"
Yorgos Lanthimos, "The Favourite"
Alfonso Cuarón, "Roma"
Adam McKay, "Vice"
Could Spike Lee finally win his Best Director Oscar? I wouldn’t be surprised. He deserves it for his career even if BlacKKKlansman isn’t his best movie. But this is the category that Roma deserves to be rewarded for. Alfonso Cuarón is the star of this movie. What he did on screen is award-worthy and make no mistake he will win tonight.
Who will win: Alfonso Cuarón for "Roma"
Who should win: Alfonso Cuarón for "Roma"
Christian Bale, "Vice"
Bradley Cooper, "A Star Is Born"
Willem Dafoe, "At Eternity's Gate"
Rami Malek, "Bohemian Rhapsody"
Viggo Mortensen, "Green Book"
Everyone has been saying the best part about Bohemian Rhapsody is Rami Malek. And I wouldn’t dare argue that. But if we are going to argue transformations and becoming a well-known person, how are we not going to award the person who physically transformed himself--and not just his body, but his voice as well. Bale changed his look, voice, and physical ticks; he is unrecognizable in this role. Rami Malek added a couple teeth in his mouth and is not the one singing. So why is Malek going to win? Probably because Christian Bale just won and they hate giving any deserving actor multiple Oscars too close together. Just ask Meryl. Buy maybe I am just bitter Leonardo DiCaprio had to wait 20 years for his Oscar and Rami Malek gets it on his first time out. Leo got screwed on Wolf of Wall Street.
Who will win: Rami Malek for "Bohemian Rhapsody""
Who should win: Christian Bale for "Vice".
Yalitza Aparicio, "Roma"
Glenn Close, "The Wife"
Olivia Colman, "The Favourite"
Lady Gaga, "A Star Is Born"
Melissa McCarthy, "Can You Ever Forgive Me?"
A lot of deserving roles in this category. I really loved Melissa McCarthy but no one in the Academy seems to want to vote for her, probably because she is typically a comedic actor. The SAG had a tie in this category between Glenn Close and Lady Gaga, so it seems like it is down to those two. I would be happy with either performance winning. Lady Gaga’s performance felt honest and real. Close’s performance is much more subtle in a movie that is overall quieter. But it is also worth considering that Glenn Close has been nominated seven other times and never won, while this is Lady Gaga’s first movie. In the event of a tie, the award will probably go to the one with the more deserving career.
Who will win: Glenn Close for "The Wife"
Who should win: Lady Gaga for "A Star Is Born"
Those are the four biggest awards but let me know what you think and follow me along on Twitter tonight. Unless I become too captivated in the awards which seems unlikely - it feels like this is going to be a train wreck. But that could make it fun to watch too. Enjoy the show!